Africa’s top 4 economies are in trouble

JOHANNESBURG — South Africateeters on the edge of an economic cliff. At the bottom is the debt rating known as junk, which economists say is a distinct possibility in coming months.
JOHANNESBURG — South Africa teeters on the edge of an economic cliff. At the bottom is the debt rating known as junk, which economists say is a distinct possibility in coming months.

Growth in Africa has outpaced most emerging markets in recent years, but that’s changing fast as a slew of problems beset its leading economies. Here’s what you need to know about sub-Saharan Africa’s big four:

SOUTH AFRICA

The prospects for Africa’s most advanced economy are not looking good. The country is set to grow by just 0.6% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. It’s one of the slowest growing countries in one of the world’s fastest growing territories.

The rand plummeted 30% last year, and not just because of an emerging market sell-off. Political turmoil has also had a big impact.

Just this month, South African President Jacob Zuma survived impeachment despite the highest court in the land finding him guilty of breaching the constitution over how public money was spent renovating his home. Well known figures from the anti-apartheid struggle are now calling for Zuma to step down.

Chaos in government isn’t helping either. Zuma stunned investors by replacing Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene with a little known politician. The president then backtracked and asked Nene’s predecessor Pravin Gordhan to take the position in order to stop the rand’s freefall.

The rand has steadied this year, rallying by about 7%. It’s been helped by a broader rally in markets driven by rising commodity prices. As a platinum, gold and coal producer, South Africa is sensitive to shifts in the commodity cycle.

But the country is not out of the woods yet. It’s on the brink of a ratings downgrade that would plunge its sovereign debt into junk status.

Still, investors are showing some renewed confidence, buying up $1.86 billion worth of bonds so far in 2016 — the best start to a year since 2010.

NIGERIA

Africa’s largest economy is buckling under the low oil price.  Nigeria relies on oil for 70% of government revenue and accounts for 90% of export revenue. That leaves very little room to adjust the country’s budget. For an emerging market that can only mean one thing — slower growth.  The West African nation is expected to clock in growth of 2.3%, the lowest rate in 15 years, according to the IMF. Its facing a shortfall of $11 billion in its 2016 budget.

Nigerians have grappled with unending shortage of petrol products across the country.
Nigerians have grappled with unending shortage of petrol products across the country.

Discussions between Nigeria and the World Bank are continuing on a possible loan or credit facility that would be tied to policy reforms.  It has drawn down its currency reserves and implemented capital controls, making access to dollars very difficult. In an economy that relies on imports, the controls have made life difficult for companies and two South African businesses have already pulled out.

Index compiler MSCI is considering removing Nigeria from its frontier market index because the restrictions have made it harder for investors to repatriate money. To make matters worse, the country is facing a fuel crisis. Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, it has never had enough refining capacity, and the scarcity of dollars is making it harder for importers to bring gas into the country. The war against Al-Qaeda linked terror group Boko Haram, which the government has vowed to eradicate, is placing further strain on the country’s finances.

ANGOLA

What was once one of Africa’s fastest growing economies is now on its knees and asking for help from the IMF. Angola is Africa’s second largest oil producer and relies on oil for 95% of government revenue.

After debuting on the international debt market last year, the country appears unable to meet its budget and debt obligations. It has requested assistance from the IMF in the form of monetary support. Angola is also bound to money-for-oil deals with China. It has used oil as collateral for loans from China, and that is further squeezing state finances. The country is set to grow by 3.5% this year, down from 6.8% in 2013, according to the IMF.

KENYA

Kenya’s economy is more resilient and diversified but there’s trouble brewing in its banking sector. Three banks are being wound down by the central bank. Two of the banks failed last year, and a third was forced into the arms of the lender of last resort this month. A fourth bank is being investigated, and analysts believe consolidation in the industry is inevitable.

The East African nation has 43 banks, most of which have overstated profits and are buckling under the weight of non-performing loans and a big fall in deposits. A dozen banks may end up under central bank control as it tries to clean up the sector.  All this is weighing on Kenya’s growth prospects: The IMF has just cut its forecast to 6% for 2016, down from 6.8% previously.

PZ Cussons Pays 70% Premium for Dollars in Nigeria on Shortage

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  |  Bloomberg/PZ Cussons Plc said it is paying as much as 70 percent more than the official rate for dollars in Nigeria as central-bank trading restrictions reduce availability of foreign currency in Africa’s biggest economy.

“Whilst the official naira exchange rate continues to be stable, a lack of availability at that rate is resulting in the majority of dollars being purchased at a premium of 50-70 percent,” the Manchester-based maker of Imperial Leather soap said in a trading update on Thursday. “The resultant cost impact is being managed through changes to relative pricing in an environment where trading conditions remain challenging. The situation in Nigeria remains extremely fluid.”

While oil revenue and exports in Africa’s biggest crude producer have plummeted since 2014, central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele and President Muhammadu Buhari have refused to let the naira weaken. They have pegged it since March 2015 at 197-199 against the dollar through currency-trading and import restrictions that have deterred foreign investment and made it tough for manufacturers to buy inputs from abroad. The black market rate has fallen to 320, around the level PZ Cussons implies it is buying dollars.

Listed companies in Nigeria still try and source foreign-exchange from their banks at the official rate, even though it’s becoming harder. Unilever Plc, which like PZ Cussons has a subsidiary trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, said last month it would be“very insane” for the country to persist with the currency policies.

Nestle SA said its local unit has had to widen the number of banks it uses so that it can access enough foreign exchange. Last year, it was waiting as long as six weeks to be allocated dollars, according to Renaissance Capital Ltd. analysts.

PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc’s shares have fallen 8.6 percent to 23.50 naira this year. The country’s All Share Index has dropped 14 percent, the fifth-most globally among 93 indexes tracked by Bloomberg.

Nigeria grapples with abrupt end to rapid growth

Back home, Africa’s top oil producer is unable to import enough gasoline. Drivers in this city of 21 million have spent days inching through miles-long lines to fill their tanks at the few pumps still operating.
Back home, Africa’s top oil producer is unable to import enough gasoline. Drivers in this city of 21 million have spent days inching through miles-long lines to fill their tanks at the few pumps still operating.

By Drew Hinshaw and Drew Hinshaw  |  WSJ

LAGOS, Nigeria—In Africa’s top economy, the oil bust is beginning to hit the streets.

With 187 million people, and trillions of dollars in untapped crude oil, Nigeria was meant to power Africa’s rise. Instead, it is becoming—for the moment—a symbol of how fast and far low oil prices have dragged emerging markets down.

Months of dwindling oil revenue have prompted a scarcity of dollars here, as the government hoards foreign currency to safeguard shrinking reserves. That is starting to hit Nigerians rich and poor alike: On Monday, the country’s stock market fell almost 3% on news that MSCI is considering removing the country from its benchmark frontier markets index.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said Nigeria’s economic growth slid to 2.8% in 2015 from 6.3% the year before, and the International Monetary Fund says this year’s growth will slip to 2.3%, slower than the population, which adds 13,000 people daily.

Factories are closing because they can’t find dollars to import parts. Supermarkets are struggling to keep shelves stocked. Power plants have virtually stopped producing electricity because they can’t pay for maintenance. New shopping malls are empty and ordinary citizens are going to lengths to find some basic goods.

To keep his economy growing, President Muhammadu Buhari is traveling to China this week, hoping to secure a multibillion-dollar loan for new infrastructure, including railroads, spokesman Garba Shehu said. This year, Nigeria may issue its first yuan-denominated bond, Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun said on Saturday.

Back home, Africa’s top oil producer is unable to import enough gasoline. Drivers in this city of 21 million have spent days inching through miles-long lines to fill their tanks at the few pumps still operating. To keep order, soldiers snap whips at oil can-toting line-jumpers and break up fights between exasperated drivers.

“We are hungry and angry,” said Victor Eten, a taxi driver who slept in his cab for three days to buy gas. “No shower, no toothbrush.…If this continues, there will be big trouble.”

Until recently, Nigeria and its economic capital were symbols of Africa’s new consumer class. Cineplexes, car dealerships and a fast-food arms race—KFC and Domino’s, among others, opened here—spoke to the aspirations of the continent’s largest city, Lagos. A decade of 7% economic growth brought Nigeria close to entering the world’s 20 largest economies. It also lured home Nigerian talent from jobs and schools in the U.S. and Europe.

These days, the euphoria has dimmed in Africa’s most populous nation. The government, which sees the downturn as an opportunity to industrialize—breaking Nigeria’s dependence on imports in an economy that relies on oil for three-quarters of revenue—also concedes that its constituents could face years of pain.

“It will take a minimum of 18 months before we begin to see a recovery,” said presidential spokesman Femi Adesina. “Through deft economic engineering, things will bounce back, but it’s not going to be magic. It’s not going to be overnight.”

Mr. Buhari has made progress in beating back the jihadist insurgency Boko Haram since taking office in May. Soldiers now hold down towns and highways once controlled by the Islamist group, whose violence occurs far from the country’s economic nerve center.

He is also making moves against corruption: Each day at 3 p.m., the new finance minister calls a different government agency and combs through its expenditures, item by item.

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But on the streets, daily frustrations are mounting. Electricity is so scarce that the country’s national power plants didn’t produce a single watt for several days last week—they couldn’t import parts and services, said two senior members of Mr. Buhari’s administration. Internet providers face similar woes.

Nigerians abroad are stuck with ATM cards they can’t use because the central bank has limited withdrawals outside the country. Bitcoin trades are up as Nigerian professionals scrounge for ways to move money—and increasingly, themselves—out of the country.

“The structural worry I see is the middle class,” said Keith Richards, a Guinness executive who has worked in Nigeria for four decades. “We could see an exodus of the future of this country. People are already leaving.”

Mr. Buhari says he hopes the scarcity of foreign goods will lead Nigerians to buy from their own farms and factories, sparking an industrial renaissance. Many new regulations encourage people to use Nigerian steel, eat local rice, and spend within the country’s borders. To show his commitment, the central bank governor recently buried his mother in a made-in-Nigeria funeral, with food, drink and decorations all sourced locally: “The central bank governor practiced what he preached,” said one senior bank official.

Civil servants have been particularly hit: Mr. Buhari says his government inherited an empty treasury after crude prices collapsed starting in 2014. Twenty-seven of the country’s 36 states are struggling to pay civil servants, he has said. He has asked lawmakers to cut spending, but they have balked, leaving the president without a budget he is willing to sign.

Revenue recently took a second hit when saboteurs went underwater to break open a pipeline that carries 130,000 barrels of crude a day. The government says that attack, which it sees as a political move to undermine the president, cost the state $122 million in February alone.

Aggravating the oil shock is a mounting foreign-currency crisis. In a bid to defend the naira, Nigeria’s central bank has sharply restricted the availability of dollars. A weekly committee stipulates which banks are allowed to sell dollars and to whom, for what purchases, and at what price.

The result: Businesses are increasingly unable to get the foreign exchange they need to import spare parts, pay off foreign lenders, travel internationally, and keep the economy running. Nigerians entrepreneurial enough to find dollars sell them for as much as twice the official exchange rate in back-alley trading shops, restaurants and on the street.

Mr. Buhari’s administration, which rode into power in May 2015 with a pledge to oust corruption, is running out of political room to act. Last year, his supporters danced at rallies waving his campaign logo—a broom—signifying a clean start. In recent months, newspapers have run stories about disenchanted voters burning brooms in bonfires.

“They’ve got to get started,” said Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Lagos research firm Financial Derivatives Co. “People are getting a bit impatient. That means there has to be action.…There’s some tension growing.”

From her laptop emporium in a four-story Lagos mall, saleswoman Joyce Nwando has watched young professionals who were meant to power her country’s rise vanish. A year ago, selfie-snapping shoppers packed the food court: “It used to be that everything that happens in Lagos happens here,” she said. Now, many stores are vacant, the lights are often off and some shopkeepers say they may close in the next few months. On Friday, a 3-D theater upstairs was about to screen the debut of “Batman v. Superman.” Not a single customer was there. “People really don’t have the money,” said the theater’s general manager, Franson Davis. “Everybody is just waiting for the light at the end of the tunnel.”

Write to Drew Hinshaw at drew.hinshaw@wsj.com and Joe Parkinson at joe.parkinson@wsj.com

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