Long-running rumours of ructions within the Nigerian Islamist group were confirmed when Islamic State—to which the group has pledged allegiance—named Abu Musab al-Barnawi as Boko Haram’s new leader this month. Now, the government faces a changing conflict. Humanitarian agencies have flooded the north-east as the Islamists retreat; diplomats fret that Mr al-Barnawi plans headline-grabbing attacks on foreign workers. Meanwhile Abubakar Shekau, his deposed predecessor, has refused to cede control, promising a wave of attacks throughout the world. This is fighting talk: in reality the jihadists are on the back foot.
Many of those loyal to Mr Shekau are surrounded by armed forces in the scrubby Sambisa forest, and Mr al-Barnawi’s group has expended energy in attacks around Lake Chad. Both sides need food, ammunition and fighters; fellow jihadists in the Middle East can do little to help. Will the two groups focus on fighting each other, or trying to outdo each other with new attacks?