China remains America and the world’s greatest geopolitical threat – not Russia

Mitt Romney may have been correct, in 2012, when he said that Russia was America’s greatest geopolitical threat. Notwithstanding Russia’s current bad behavior, Romney’s assessment is no longer correct.

By Hon. Carroll G. Robinson, Esq. & Dr. Michael O. Adams

China is now America’s (and the world’s) greatest geopolitical threat. China has allegedly hacked the federal government, something some foreign policy experts consider an act of war. This is in addition to hacking American companies and stealing their intellectual product.

 China wants to be the world’s new singular economic and military superpower. China wants to control the China Sea – a vital global economic artery – through military force so that it can intimidate and dominate its regional neighbors and control global trade.

 While Americans are focused on the Russian email intrigue, China is militarizing man-made islands in the China Sea to eliminate the international norm of freedom of the sea.

The U.S. needs to deploy more aircraft carriers to Asia and help Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan build missile defense systems similar to the “Iron Dome” system in Israel. America must also strengthen our relationships and alliances in our own hemisphere, especially in Latin-South-and Central America as well as the Caribbean. This includes building on the Obama opening to Cuba.

Additionally, America needs to invest in Africa. We must help the nations on the continent strengthen and grow their economies and fight terrorists and work with India to strengthen its economy and military including a missile defense system.

Rebuilding America’s infrastructure, cutting taxes and deporting undocumented immigrants will not be enough to make America richer so it can spend more on the military.

To create more jobs and grow the American economy to have the funds to reduce the national debt and invest more in the military, there must be people around the world who can afford to buy American goods, services and products, and have the willingness to do so.

America must help build foreign markets for American goods, services and products and help ensure freedom of the sea and sky to protect the movement of global commerce.

Our nation will have to work with Russia, Jordan and the Saudis to bring peace and stability to Syria and the broader Middle East. Part of that effort will have to include strengthening America’s energy security and independence from Middle Eastern oil.

America has been trying to maintain a post WW II structure of the world that is just no longer realistic. The new reality of the 21st Century has to be acknowledged and used to inform the creation of a new American foreign policy framework and global consensus.

 Investigating and responding to Russia’s hacking of the DNC and John Podesta’s email accounts must also include a serious and objective analysis of how to respond to China and North Korea’s hacking of the federal government and American businesses.

The failure to properly respond to prior incidents of foreign hacking, in the United States, is a part of the reason why Russia felt emboldened enough to hack the DNC and John Podesta’s email accounts.

 The reality is that America is not fully prepared to defend the nation against cyber war.

It’s time to put partisanship aside and get to work on properly preparing our nation for the new challenges and adversaries before us and those to come.

 Finally, journalists need to understand that their hyperbolic coverage of investigating the Russia hacking story is strengthening Putin on the world stage as a grand geopolitical strategist, (Ivan Krastev, Russia Isn’t Pulling All The Strings, The New York Times, December 21, 2016.)

 Domestically, so-called establishment and mainstream media outlets are also significantly undercutting their own credibility. Far too many journalists are now engaged in ahistorical partisan advocacy as opposed to objective fact based reporting historically contextualized.

 Putin has destabilized and further divided our nation without firing a shot while elevating his own stature on the world stage. This has been accomplished, in part, by media coverage. The safety and prosperity of our nation depends on how we view the world and respond to its changing needs and circumstances.

♦ Robinson and Adams are members of the faculty of the Political Science Department at Texas Southern University in Houston, Texas.

 

African migrants are returning from China and telling their compatriots not to go

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When Lamin Ceesay, an energetic 25-year-old from Gambia, arrived in China last year, he thought his life had made a turn for the better. As the oldest of four siblings, he was responsible for caring for his family, especially after his father passed away. But jobs were few in his hometown of Tallinding Kunjang, outside of the Gambian capital of Banjul. After hearing about China’s rise, his uncle sold off his taxi business and the two of them bought a ticket and a paid local visa dealer to get them to China.

“It was very developed. The tall buildings, everything was colorful. I thought, okay my life is going to change. It’s going to be better. Life is good here,” Ceesay tells Quartz, describing his first impressions of the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou.

Gambia, a small country of just under 2 million people in West Africa, has been losing entire villages to migration mostly to Europe, but also to China. Chinese border restrictions have been easier than in Europe or North America and Guangzhou has become a hub for African migrants, traders, and entrepreneurs. In Gambia, youth unemployment is high, almost 40%, encouraging people like Ceesay to look east.

“All I knew is that China was a world-class country and the economy is good,” he said.

But Ceesay’s new life didn’t turn out quite how he imagined. The job that visa dealers promised would help him pay off his debts in three months didn’t exist. Ceesay struggled even to feed himself. When he tried to move to Hong Kong where he had heard work was better, he was escorted back to Guangzhou by police. Ceesay ended up in Thailand for three months, unsuccessfully looking for work, before coming home.

 “All I knew is that China was a world-class country and the economy is good.” Determined not to let his experience be in vain, Ceesay has turned into a campaigner against the myth of China as a promised land for Africans seeking work. “I told my uncle, I’m going back to Gambia, and I’m going to tell this story and explain what’s happening.”

Ceesay went on local radio shows answering questions from callers about life and work in China. He started a Facebook page, “Gambians Nightmare in China” detailing the frustrating and dangerous situations that he and other Gambians in China found themselves in. Now, his story along with those of other returned Gambian migrants, is the basis of a new website called Uturn Asia, done in collaboration with migration researchers, Heidi Østbø Haugen and Manon Diederich, from the University of Oslo and the University of Cologne.

“The project came about because they had a strong wish to warn others against coming,” says Østbø Haugen. “They thought they could do so more effectively as a group than as individuals, as individual accounts of failure are often written off as attempts to justify ineptness.”

On the website, Ceesay and others detail the full circle, or U-turn, they completed: the decision to leave home—a calculus that often involved taking on heavy loans and families spending years of saving or selling off their few assets—optimism replaced by desperation as they ran out of money in China, and humiliation as they tried to scrabble enough money together to go home.

“The dream that you hoped for—the better job, better life— is not there. It’s just a dream that is nowhere to be found in Asia,” Ceesay says.

Ceesay’s warning is for other African communities, many of whom have had similar experiences. “What happened to them has happened to Africans of other nationalities earlier,” says Østbø Haugen, “but their desire to prevent others from ending up in the same situation is unique.”

In fact, China’s African population may already be shrinking. (Researchers say the concentration of Africans in Guangzhou better known as “Chocolate City” is dispersing.) Estimates for the number of sub-Saharan Africans in Guangzhou range from 150,000 long-term residents, according to government statistics last year, to as high as 300,000—figures complicated by the number of Africans coming in and out of the country as well as those who overstay their visas.

African traders in Guangzhou.
African traders in Guangzhou.

As China’s economy slows and stricter visa requirements have been put in place, researchers say more African migrants are opting to go home. Others experience everyday racism like taxi drivers who won’t pick them up.

The Gambian accounts on Uturn Asia depict a hard life for Africans in China. They describe living in cramped apartments where they have to take turns sleeping because there aren’t enough beds. Many spent their days hiding inside, afraid of being caught by the police with expired visas. Several detail struggling to get enough water and food in one of the most developed cities in China.

There were also examples of people coming together. Ceesay helped organize food supplies for a group of 20 Gambians, all in similar situations as him, by asking each to contribute 5 yuan (about $0.75) a day for food supplies. Africans from other countries also showed solidarity.

 “The dream that you hoped for—the better job, better life— is not there. It’s just a dream that is nowhere to be found in Asia.”  “The solidarity of West Africans never stops to amaze me,” says Østbø Haugen.”They shared the food and water someone had money to buy, and African cooks of other nationalities gave them left-overs after their informal restaurants closed.”

It’s unclear whether the project will do much to change what Østbø Haugen calls the “combination of desperation and hopefulness” that motivates many to emigrate. Several of those interviewed for the project went on to migrate “the back way” to Europe, as in by crossing the Mediterranean, a dangerous sea journey that killed 4,000 migrants last year. One of the interview subjects considered moving back to China but decided to go to Europe instead. He died during the crossing, according to Østbø Haugen.

Despite years of arguing with his younger brother and describing his own experience in China, Ceesay’s younger brother also left home for Europe two weeks ago, traveling to Libya where Ceesay last heard from him.

Investors decry deal as China’s Africa push reaches currencies

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Bloomberg News May 16, 2016

Strategists are criticizing Nigeria’s latest plan to rescue its currency — this time by relying on Chinese cash.

On a visit to Beijing last month, President Muhammadu Buhari signed a currency agreement aimed at encouraging trade with China and reducing Nigeria’s demand for dollars to relieve pressure on its dwindling foreign reserves.

While the deal, details of which are still being negotiated, helps China’s push into Africa’s largest economy, it will buy Nigeria a few months, at most, before it’s forced to follow the lead of other oil exporters and devalue, according to Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.

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The naira-yuan swap agreement is “very unlikely” to relieve pressure on the naira or Nigeria’s reserves, said Andrew Howell, a New York-based frontier-markets strategist at Citigroup, the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader. “The market wants to see a clear path toward achieving a sustainable exchange rate, where supply and demand for foreign exchange are balanced.”

Nigeria has held the naira at 197-199 per dollar since March last year, even as oil revenue and export earnings plummeted and other crude producers from Angola to Russia let their currencies weaken. Reserves have fallen 29 percent since mid-2014 to the lowest in more than 10 years as the central bank’s capital controls slowed foreign investment to a trickle.

While the level of devaluation implied by naira forward contracts has dropped as Buhari resists calls to let the currency weaken, they still predict a 37 percent decline in the next year. With the economy set to expand this year at the slowest pace since 1999, according to the International Monetary Fund, Buhari last week signed off on a record budget that leaves the government with a deficit of 2.2 trillion naira ($11 billion).

Oil Rebound

The recent rebound in oil prices hasn’t helped: Nigeria needs to produce 2.2 million barrels a day and sell them at $38 a barrel to meet its fiscal targets. Production slumped to 1.7 million barrels in April, the lowest since 1994, because of militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger delta. The country relied on oil and gas for about 70 percent of government revenue and 90 percent of export earnings in 2014.

Details of the currency swap agreement, such as its size, maturity and exchange rate, have yet to be announced, making it hard for investors to have faith in the accord. The People’s Bank of China didn’t respond to faxed questions and Isaac Okorafor, a spokesman for the Abuja-based Central Bank of Nigeria, declined to comment when contacted by phone.

Beijing has signed several bilateral currency swaps in the past eight years, including with South Korea, Malaysia and Argentina, in a push to let the yuan trade more freely. South Africa, which took on a 30 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) three-year swap in April 2015, is the only other African country to have agreed such a deal with China. Nigeria and China are considering a swap of about 20 billion yuan, Lagos-based newspaper ThisDay reported last month, citing unidentified sources in the Nigerian president’s office.

Black Market

Buhari and central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele claim that letting the naira drop would hurt Nigerians by raising prices in a country that imports the bulk of its finished goods. Most businesses are forced to use the black market exchange rate, which trades about 60 percent weaker than the official rate, at 320 to the dollar. That’s boosting inflation, which accelerated to 12.8 percent in March, the highest in almost four years.

“Nigeria runs a persistent trade deficit with China,” said Oyin Anubi, a London-based economist at Bank of America. “Unless China is willing to take more naira than it needs to buy Nigerian crude, which it doesn’t tend to do in big quantities, then Nigeria’s deficit in foreign exchange, whether yuan or dollars, is likely to continue.”

Investors are shunning Nigerian stocks and bonds until there’s a devaluation, according to Howell at Citi, who predicts the central bank will be forced to let the currency depreciate to 226 per dollar by the end of 2016. Investors who still hold Nigerian assets are reluctant to sell as they’d struggle to the buy foreign-exchange needed to exit the country, he said.

Nigeria21

Nigerian equities have dropped 10 percent this year, the most in Africa after Zambia’s. The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index has lost more than 25 percent since Buhari was sworn into office at the end of May last year. Local-currency government bonds have lost 6 percent in dollar terms, the only debt not to have gained among 31 emerging markets monitored by Bloomberg, aside from Egypt and Mexico.

While Buhari may use a swap with China to try and delay a devaluation, it won’t give him much respite, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The deal may simply increase the nation’s trade deficit with China, which ran to $15 billion in 2015.

“It’s unlikely to have any meaningful impact in the short term,” said Yvette Babb, a sub-Saharan Africa strategist at the New York-based lender, which forecasts an exchange rate of 240-260 per dollar by year-end. “A swap has limited ability to influence the structural mismatch between supply and demand.”

This Nigeria’s state governors is pleading with China to ignore President Buhari’s loan request

The Ekiti governor, Ayodele Fayose, claimed that 25 percent of the Federal Government’s budget was already being used to service national debt.
The Ekiti governor, Ayodele Fayose, claimed that 25 percent of the Federal Government’s budget was already being used to service national debt.

By   |  Newsweek/

A Nigerian state governor and vocal critic of President Muhammadu Buhari has written to the Chinese government, requesting they not approve a billion-dollar loan to the West African country.

Ayodele Fayose, the governor of Nigeria’s western Ekiti state, penned the letter during a working visit to China by Buhari and other senior government officials, including Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun. The finance minister was reportedly traveling to China to seek a loan of around $2 billion, to help fund Nigeria’s record budget, which is predicted to generate a deficit of 3 trillion naira ($15 billion) in 2016, Reuters reported.

“While conceding that all nations, especially developing ones, need support to be able to grow because no nation is an island, I am constrained to inform you that if the future of Nigeria must be protected, the country does not need any loan at this time,” said Fayose in the letter dated April 12, which was obtained by Nigeria’s Premium Times on Thursday.

Fayose—a member of the opposition People’s Democratic Party, which was ousted from government when Buhari defeated the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan in elections in March 2015—added that “Nigerians, irrespective of their political and religious affiliations, are totally opposed to [the] increment of the country’s debt burden.”

The Ekiti governor claimed that 25 percent of the Federal Government’s budget was already being used to service national debt. The letter was reportedly delivered to the Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Gu Xiaojie, in Abuja on Thursday. Newsweek contacted the Chinese Embassy in Nigeria but no one was immediately available to comment.

It is not clear whether such a $2 billion loan to fund Nigeria’s deficit has been agreed during the state visit to China. Beijing has offered Nigeria a $6 billion loan to fund various infrastructure projects, according to Nigerian Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama, after negotiations between Buhari and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Prior to the trip, Adeosun also spoke of the possibility of financing the deficit through the issuing of Panda Bonds —bonds sold by a foreign entity in China that are issued in the Chinese yuan (or renminbi) currency.

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari (L) speaks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) at a meeting in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, April 13. Buhari and his delegation have reportedly sought several Chinese loans during a state visit.
Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari (L) speaks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) at a meeting in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, April 13. Buhari and his delegation have reportedly sought several Chinese loans during a state visit.

Fayose’s criticism of Buhari is not without precedent. The Ekiti governor previously criticized the president for attending a nuclear summit in Washington, D.C. from March 31-April 3 while Nigeria was suffering power outages and a fuel shortage that has seen massive queues gather outside gas stations across the country. The PDP member has also been scathing of Buhari’s handling of the 2016 budget, which the president is yet to sign off. The budget was first proposed by Buhari in December 2015 but its implementation has been slowed after various irregularities were discovered, such as 795 million naira ($4 million) being set aside for the renovation of one unnamed government ministry’s website.

 

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