Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump in ABC News’ Electoral Ratings Before Tough Battleground Contests

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 13: People cheer as Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at her official kickoff rally at the Four Freedoms Park on Roosevelt Island in Manhattan on June 13, 2015 in New York City. The long awaited speech at a historical location associated with the values Franklin D. Roosevelt outlined in his 1941 State of the Union address, is the Democratic the candidate's attempt to define the issues of her campaign to become the first female president of the United States. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) — File photo: NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 13: People cheer as Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at her official kickoff rally at the Four Freedoms Park on Roosevelt Island in Manhattan on June 13, 2015 in New York City. The long awaited speech at a historical location associated with the values Franklin D. Roosevelt outlined in his 1941 State of the Union address, is the Democratic the candidate’s attempt to define the issues of her campaign to become the first female president of the United States. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is maintaining a decided advantage in the Electoral College this November, strengthening her grip around states tipping her way while forcing Republican nominee Donald Trump to defend a handful of typical GOP strongholds.

But a narrow path still exists for Trump. Toss-ups in North Carolina and Florida — as well as optimism that states like Pennsylvania and Michigan might tip back into play — leave supporters hopeful.

So ABC News dug through states’ voting history, demographic shifts and head-to-head polling to develop these electoral ratings. ABC News’ puts Clinton at 278 electoral votes and Trump at 198, when including both solid and leaning states, which would give Clinton enough states right now in the solid and lean blue columns to hand her the White House. Sixty-two electoral votes are in toss-up states.
Still, this election cycle has shown that this race can be unpredictable, and Trump has vowed to shake up the traditional map and put several blue states in play. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Solid Democratic

Despite Trump’s hopes of putting New York’s 29 electoral votes in play this election, the Empire State would be expected to pull for Clinton, along with other reliably liberal-leaning swaths of the mid-Atlantic. Most of the rest of the historically liberal Northeast would likely remain solidly Democratic in November. In the Midwest, Minnesota and Illinois would likely deliver Clinton a combined 30 electoral votes.

California, which boasts the largest share of electoral votes, at 55, has not voted Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Recent polling there shows Clinton leading Trump by double digits, keeping the Golden State safely in the Democratic column, along with Oregon and Washington. New Mexico is predicted to vote Democratic for the third consecutive presidential election.

Leaning Democratic

More states across the Mountain West and Rust Belt would give Clinton another 75 electoral votes, but Trump is hopeful that he could pick off at least of one them. Colorado voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and growing Hispanic populations in both states may keep these states in the blue column for good.

New Hampshire polling has shown the state leaning Hillary Clinton’s way, creating a firewall that blocks any attempt by Trump to cobble together a series of smaller states.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are usually reliably Democratic states, but Trump’s popularity among working-class whites may put these states in play. A win would be an upset for Trump: Democrats have won every presidential race in Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1992 and Wisconsin since 1988.

Virginia, home to Democratic vice-presidential pick Tim Kaine, is also expected to tip toward Clinton, having voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. New Hampshire polling also shows a Hillary Clinton advantage there. And polling in Maine, another classic Democratic state, has shown the state’s at-large electoral votes could be up for grabs.

Toss-ups

Four toss-up states, worth 62 electoral votes, could tip the election toward a Clinton blowout, as Trump would likely need to win nearly all those states in order to reach the White House. Toss-up states this year include large electoral vote prizes like North Carolina and Florida, which were decided by just a few percentage points in the 2012 election. Utah and Arizona also have joined the ranks of toss-up states – though Arizona hasn’t gone blue since 1996 and Utah hasn’t gone blue in decades.

Leaning Republican

Ohio will be one of the key states to watch: The Buckeye State has voted for the winner of the White House every year since 1960.

Georgia has voted for the Republican nominee in seven of the last eight presidential elections, but white voters are quickly making up a smaller proportion of active registered voters in the state. White voters made up 68 percent of registered voters in 2004, but they now make up only 58 percent of registered voters, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

Polling in Iowa also shows Trump with a slight advantage there, mostly thanks to an overwhelmingly white electorate. Nebraska’s Second Congressional district, which Obama won in 2008, is also showing signs it could tip Hillary Clinton’s way in 2016.

Solid Republican

The bulk of Trump’s electoral votes would likely come from historically Republican portions of the Great Plains, West and Midwest, as well as the Bible Belt, which stretches from South Carolina to Texas and boasts large numbers of evangelical Christian and social conservative voters.

West Virginia, which has seen unemployment levels rise under Obama, is expected to vote Republican for the fifth presidential election in a row, as is Alaska, which has not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Ratings Changes

Nov. 1:

Ohio from Tossup to Leans Republican. Clinton has not held a statistically significant lead in the state in any polling there in nearly two months. Recent polling has shown a tight race. But early voting statistics have shown positive signs for Trump. Ohio does not show early vote by party. But voting is down by almost 80,000 votes in Cuyahoga County compared to 2012 – an Obama stronghold – and turnout is up in Warren County – a key Romney stronghold. Clinton has shifted her efforts and resources to other firewall states like Pennsylvania and Florida, only holding six events there herself during the last two months.

Alaska from Solid Republican to Leans Republican. Alaska has supported the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1964. Alaska has a historical willingness to vote for third party or unconventional candidates, like its independent governor and Joe Miller over incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 Republican senate primary, then wrote-in Murkowski to victory in the general election. Alaska’s small population also allows for more realistic swings in its preferences.

Maine At-Large from Leans Democratic to Solid Democratic. A recent poll from the Press Herald/UNH showed Hillary Clinton with an 11-point lead there. The state’s second Congressional district remains a toss-up, but we don’t expect a potential Trump victory there to be wide enough to tip the entire state his way.

Oct. 28: Florida from Leans Democratic to Tossup. A new Bloomberg Politics poll out this week shows Trump earning 45 percent support vs. 43 percent for Clinton. Meanwhile, early voting shows the two parties running virtually even in early votes.

Oct. 21: Florida from Tossup to Leans Democratic. Florida has been seen as a must-win for Trump, so this shift makes the Republican nominee’s shrinking path even narrower. The latest Quinnipiac poll out this week shows Clinton leading Trump by 4 points in the Sunshine State, which went for Obama in 2012 and 2008.

Nevada from Tossup to Leans Democratic. The state has voted with the overall winner of the presidential election since 1980 and campaign officials there feel that the state is tipping toward the Democrats.

Utah from Leans Republican to Tossup. Independent candidate Evan McMullin’s rapidly growing popularity in the state, especially among Mormon voters who are defecting from Donald Trump, threatens to siphon votes from the GOP nominee – increasing the odds that Hillary Clinton edges ahead or McMullin wins the state outright.

Arizona from Leans Republican to Tossup. Clinton has put once-reliably red Arizona in play, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996. Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders campaigned there this week in hopes of galvanizing Democratic support, particularly among the state’s growing number of Latino and young voters.

Oct. 14:

There is only one change to the ABC presidential race ratings this week. Utah, which changed in August from “Solid Republican” to “Leans Republican” before returning to “Solid Republican,” is once again being downgraded to “Leans Republican.” Utah’s large religious population expressed dismay over last week’s release of a video clip showing Trump making derogatory comments about women and third party candidates such as Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin could siphon votes away from Trump.

Oct. 7:

ABC News is now rating Maine’s first congressional district for the first time: “Solid Democratic.” While Clinton holds a solid lead in CD-1, the race in the second congressional district is still a “Tossup.” The state’s two electoral at-large votes continue to be rated “Leans Democratic.”

Sept. 2:

ABC News changed New Hampshire from “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic” and Nevada from “Leans Democratic” to “Tossup.” New polling from WMUR/UNH shows Hillary Clinton with a nine-point lead in the Granite State, which hasn’t voted Republican since 2000. And Hillary Clinton’s campaign continues to dump big television advertising dollars into Nevada – second only to Ohio in the most dollars per electoral vote – showing that state very much up for grabs.

Aug. 30:

ABC News changed Maine’s rating from “Solid Democratic” to “Leans Democratic,” the state’s second congressional district from “Leans Democratic” to “Tossup,” and Missouri from “Leans Republican” to “Solid Republican.”

Maine Recent polling in Maine has shown a competitive race. Maine could split its electoral votes for the first time – with two votes going to the state’s overall winner and one to the winner of each of the two Congressional districts. A new poll from Press Herald/UNH shows Clinton and Trump within the margin of error, with Trump leading by 14 percentage points in the state’s more rural second Congressional district. Still, the state hasn’t gone red in 1988.

Missouri While the race for the U.S. Senate remains competitive in Missouri, the presidential race there has tipped back toward Republican nominee Donald Trump. The state has gone blue only twice in the last four decades – both times for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Still, Mitt Romney won the state by a wide 10 percentage points in 2012 and Clinton’s campaign and super PAC have not invested time or resources there.

Aug. 22:

ABC News changed Iowa from “Tossup” to “Leans Republican” and Utah from “Leans Republican” to “Solid Republican.” It also rated the second Congressional District in Maine as “Leans Democratic” and the second Congressional district in Nebraska as “Leans Republican.”

Aug. 12:

ABC News changed Utah from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” and Virginia from “Tossup” to “Lean Democratic.”

Virginia Recent polling and other changes in the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton show that Virginia, once a tossup state, is leaning Democratic. Virginia, historically a battleground state, last awarded its votes in the Electoral College to a Republican in 2004. For the past four election cycles, Virginia has cast its votes in the Electoral College for the eventual winner of the presidential race. In new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out today, Clinton’s lead over Trump widened since last month, with 46 percent of voters going for Clinton and only 33 percent saying that they would vote for Trump. Clinton’s recent selection of Tim Kaine as her running mate strengthens her position in Virginia. Kaine, a former governor of Virginia and the state’s current senator, is a popular figure in the Old Dominion. All signs show a state leaning towards voting for a Democrat in the White House once again.

Utah Trump is still favored to win Utah, but it won’t be as easy a lift as previous GOP nominees. Clinton has signaled she wants to play in the state, penning an opinion piece in the Deseret News this week. “Every day, Trump continues to prove he lacks the morals to be our commander-in-chief,” she wrote, appealing to deeply-religious Mormons who make up a crucial voting bloc in Utah. With prominent players like Mitt Romney still sitting on the sidelines, the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and new conservative candidacy of former CIA operative Evan McMullin threaten to strip some support from Trump. Still, Utah has voted for a Republican in every presidential election in the last 50 years, including delivering a sweeping 73-25 percent victory for Mitt Romney in 2012.

June 17:

ABC News changed Missouri from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” and Arizona from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

♦ Culled from the ABC News’ ( by JOHN KRUZEL and RYAN STRUYK, Noah Fitzgerel, Adam Kelsey and Ben Siegel).

Top Senate Dem says FBI chief may have broken law on emails

Comey jolted the White House race with his letter to Congress informing lawmakers of the newly found emails. Democrats fear the discovery creates fresh momentum for Republican Donald Trump in the final week of the presidential race as well as for down-ballot Republicans running for the Senate and the House.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The top Senate Democrat said Sunday that FBI Director James Comey may have broken the law when he disclosed 11 days before the election that investigators had newly discovered emails that may be relevant to the inquiry into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.

In a scathing letter to Comey, Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada accused the FBI chief of a double standard, resisting Democratic calls to discuss possible ties between Donald Trump and the Russian government while informing Congress last Friday of the emails found in the sexting investigation of Anthony Weiner, the former New York congressman and estranged husband of Huma Abedin, a top aide to Clinton.

“Your actions in recent months have demonstrated a disturbing double standard for the treatment of sensitive information, with what appears to be a clear intent to aid one political party over another,” Reid said. “I am writing to inform you that my office has determined that these actions may violate the Hatch Act, which bars FBI officials from using their official authority to influence an election. Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law.”

Comey jolted the White House race with his letter to Congress informing lawmakers of the newly found emails. Democrats fear the discovery creates fresh momentum for Republican Donald Trump in the final week of the presidential race as well as for down-ballot Republicans running for the Senate and the House.

With more than a half dozen toss-up or competitive Senate races, nearly all involving Republican-held seats, Democrats have a chance at reclaiming the majority. The one competitive Democratic seat is held by Reid, who is retiring at the end of the year.

Reid, never one to shy from a political fight in the heat of a campaign, said once Comey “came into possession of the slightest innuendo related to Secretary Clinton, you rushed to publicize it in the most negative light possible.”

Reid underscored that he has been a supporter of the FBI director and fought for Comey’s Senate confirmation when Republicans blocked the nomination.

“I led the fight to get you confirmed because I believed you to be a principled public servant,” Reid wrote. “With the deepest regret, I now see that I was wrong.”

Separately, former Attorney General Eric Holder and dozens of other former federal prosecutors signed a letter critical of Comey’s recent actions in the Clinton email case.

The letter obtained Sunday by The Associated Press contends that Comey deviated from Justice Department policy when he alerted Congress to the new discovery of emails potentially related to the Clinton email investigation.

Justice Department officials are instructed not to discuss ongoing investigations and to “exercise heightened restraint near the time of a primary or general election,” to avoid the appearance of prosecutorial influence in the electoral process, according to the letter.

“We cannot recall a prior instance where a senior Justice Department official — Republican or Democrat — has, on the eve of a major election, issued a public statement where the mere disclosure of information may impact the election’s outcome yet the official acknowledges the information to be examined may not be significant or new,” the letter states.

The emails were found on a device seized during an unrelated criminal sexting investigation of Weiner.

Comey acknowledged in a letter to FBI colleagues on Friday that he knew the letter was at risk of being misunderstood so close to the election, but that he felt obliged to update Congress on the emails after having earlier told lawmakers that the email inquiry had been closed.

But the ex-prosecutors say Comey’s letter was so devoid of detail as to “invite considerable, uninformed public speculation” about the emails’ significance. They note that Comey did not reveal who had sent or received the emails, whether the emails include duplicates of messages that have already been reviewed or whether the emails contain any classified information.

The letter is signed by dozens of attorneys, including former Justice Department officials in Washington — among them, former deputy attorneys general Donald B. Ayer, James Cole, Jamie Gorelick, Larry Thompson and David Ogden — and a group of United States attorneys and assistant U.S. attorneys. Thompson, Ayer and Lourdes Baird, a former U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, were appointed by Republican administrations.

Latest electoral map shows more states are moving away from Trump

Now that the presidential debates have finished, we’ve updated our electoral map once again. Like our last update, this one shifted more states away from Donald Trump.

The biggest shift: Florida, the nation’s largest swing state, is now light blue, as we’ve moved it from the battleground category to a Democratic lean.

In all, our map shows Clinton ahead in states with 308 electoral votes — 38 more than the 270 needed to win the presidency. Trump has 174. Five states, with 56 electoral votes, are toss-ups.

We had kept Florida as a toss-up in our previous update of the map because of its history as the scene of some of the country’s closest electoral battles.

As Democratic strategist Steve Schale likes to note about his state, in the past four elections, about 30.5 million presidential votes have been cast in Florida, and the difference between Republicans and Democrats comes to 71,000 votes — just 0.24% of the total. No other state has been closer.

But this year, Clinton seems to be on track to break that pattern. She has led in nine of the last 10 public polls, and her lead appears to be growing. On average, she’s now ahead by about four points in polling averages of the state.

The other two shifts come in the West. As we’ve previously noted, Mormon antipathy to Trump has contributed to making Arizona a battleground state. It’s also why we’re now adding Utah to that list.

Clinton isn’t likely to win Utah — no Democrat has in a presidential race since 1964. But polls indicate that Evan McMullin, a former congressional staff member and CIA operative who is a graduate of Brigham Young University, could win there. If so, he’d be the first third-party candidate to win a state since George Wallace in 1968.

Finally, Trump’s weakness among Republicans has also caused polls to tighten in Texas. We still think the Republican will win there, but we’ve moved the state from solid red to pink, reflecting the reality that even that state is not definite for Trump.

Annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner: Trump, Clinton trade caustic barbs as roast turns bitter

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Cardinal Timothy Dolan and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. — Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Cardinal Timothy Dolan and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner.

NEW YORK (AP) — The annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, a white-tie gala in New York that is often the last time the two presidential nominees share a stage before Election Day, is traditionally a time when campaign hostilities are set aside.

Not this year.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traded sharp barbs and brutal takedowns Thursday, the night after their final debate, with many in the well-heeled crowd turning on the Republican nominee midway through his remarks and showering him with jeers.

Trump, who had drawn big laughs earlier in the speech, appeared to lose the room as he repeatedly dug in with caustic swipes at Clinton, drawing rare boos at a charity event meant to raise money for impoverished children throughout New York.

He appeared to straddle the line when he talked about how “listening to Hillary rattle on and rattle on” has made him better appreciate his longtime nemesis Rosie O’Donnell. But he then seemed to cross it when he referred to her as “corrupt” during a lengthy riff on the FBI’s investigation into her use of a private email server as secretary of state.

“Hillary is so corrupt she got kicked off the Watergate Commission. How corrupt do you have to be to get kicked off the Watergate Commission? Pretty corrupt,” he said to loud boos and at least one call demanding he get off the stage.

He then almost appeared to segue into the standard attack lines of his rally speeches, setting aside jokes to bring up material contained in hacked Clinton campaign emails.

“Hillary believes that it’s vital to deceive the people by having one public policy and a totally different policy in private,” he said to growing jeers. “Here she is tonight, in public, pretending not to hate Catholics.”

Clinton also veered into personal digs, making one joke in which she said the Statue of Liberty, for most Americans, represents a symbol of hope for immigrants.

“Donald looks at the Statue of Liberty and sees a ‘4,’” Clinton joked. “Maybe a ‘5’ if she loses the torch and tablet and changes her hair.”

Trump and Clinton sat one seat apart for the evening, with New York’s Cardinal Timothy Dolan acting as the only buffer. And when they entered and took their seats, they did not greet each other or make eye contact, though they did shake hands at the conclusion of the roast.

Dolan later called his seat “the iciest place on the planet.”

Most eyes were on Trump, who infamously glowered through Obama’s jokes at his expense during the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner and is not known for being self-deprecating.

Some of his jokes landed well, drawing laughs from both the crowd and Clinton.

His biggest laughs came as he talked about Michelle Obama getting rave reviews for a recent speech. “They think she’s absolutely great. My wife Melania gives the exact same speech, and people get on her case,” he said to whoops and laughs.

And some of his attack lines flashed a sense of humor that has been mostly absent from the grueling campaign. Clinton was the first one to laugh when Trump joked that she had bumped into him earlier in the night “and she very simply said ‘Pardon me'” — an unsubtle reference to the Republican nominee’s frequent declarations that his opponent should go to jail.

Clinton, meanwhile, was more self-deprecating than Trump, joking that she’s taken a break from her “usual nap schedule” to attend and suggesting that the audience should be pleased she’s not charging her usual fee for speaking in front of potential donors.

But she also got in some digs at Trump, a few of which drew scattered jeers. Clinton said she understood why Trump was leery of teleprompters because they can be difficult to follow and “I’m sure it’s even harder when you’re translating from the original Russian.”

The dinner is named after the former New York governor, who was the first Catholic to receive a major party nomination for president when he unsuccessfully ran in 1928. And fittingly for an event named after a man nicknamed “The Happy Warrior,” the occasion has produced dozens of memorable presidential jokes — and sincere moments of goodwill that have remained largely absent from the 2016 campaign.

“I can’t wish my opponent luck,” John McCain said in 2008, turning toward Obama, “but I do wish him well.”

Presidential Debate fallout – How Donald Trump destroyed Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton didn’t beat Donald Trump in the final debate. Donald Trump destroyed Donald Trump.

With Trump, there’s always a moment when the curtain opens on the true nature of his mental processes.

In Wednesday’s debate, it wasn’t just a moment, it was an epoch. It came when moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News — who did a terrific, probing, even-handed job — asked if he would accept the result of the election.

As Wallace noted, Mike Pence, Trump’s running mate, has said he and Trump will accept the results. His daughter Ivanka says she thinks her father will.

But all Trump would say was: “I will tell you at the time.”

He then launched into a multilayered conspiracy theory: The media was poisoning the minds of the voters. Further, Clinton shouldn’t have been allowed to run for president because of the supposed crime she has committed.

When Clinton pointed out that the FBI’s long investigation concluded there wasn’t a case, Trump as much as said that had been a tank job. That’s a popular belief among Republican right-wingers, but for anyone who knows the law, straight-arrow FBI director James Comey made the correct and obvious call.

But Trump didn’t stop there. He soon alleged that the Iraqi-led, US-assisted assault on ISIS-held Mosul had been launched this month to help Clinton’s campaign!

For her part, Clinton took him apart, noting that he had claimed the Iowa caucuses were rigged, that a court case against “Trump University” was rigged, and that, a few years back, when his reality show didn’t get one, that the Emmys were rigged.

Hers was an effective rejoinder, but frankly, it wasn’t needed. Trump’s own comments gave a window into his strange, conspiratoralist way of thinking.

Hillary Clinton didn’t beat Donald Trump in the final debate. Donald Trump destroyed Donald Trump.

Here’s the problem for Trump. He thought his challenge was muddying up Clinton, and so, in the second half of the debate, he went the usual Trump route. That is, a hyperbolic attack.

There were two issues there. First, by now, everyone knows Clinton’s flaws. But a durable plurality of voters has also decided that those faults pale before Trump’s. Which brings us to the core issue for Trump: His real challenge is himself.

Most voters have come to the conclusion that he’s just not a good fit for the White House.

This final debate only reinforced that impression.

♦ Culled from the Boston Globe

Donald Trump’s last chance: Plunges lower than ever

By Rob Crilly

I have a confession to make: I’m not sure how much more of this election I can take.

After months scouring newspapers and websites for every drop of political news, wringing every bit of gossip from friends and contacts, I find myself turning to the sports pages first. That’s something I haven’t done since I was about 11. I can’t be alone. This campaign felt like it had gone on too long even before the word “pussy” was added to the discourse.

Now we have complaints from Donald Trump that the election is rigged, and I am reminded of the campaigns I covered as a foreign reporter in Uganda, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kenya and the rest, where similar advance allegations were lined up ready for use after defeat.

All that’s missing is the arrest of a candidate or two (and that is not as far-fetched as it once was).

It is not a good look for what is supposed to be the world’s greatest democracy.

And you can bet things are only going to get worse during the final two and half weeks: Donald Trump’s campaign seems to have made the calculation that a scorched earth policy might be the only way he can still win.

Since we learned who the two nominees would be, Trump has been ahead in the polls for only four days, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Those were around the Republican National Convention when he had the network TV spotlight to himself.

Since then, on the leash and off the leash, he has been behind Clinton. And her lead has only increased during a fortnight of Trump’s bungled debates, videos of sex talk on the bus and increasingly hysterical talk of conspiracy theories.

Even he seemed to sense the race was now a long shot when I saw him speak last week in Wilkes-Barre, the sort of blue-collar Pennsylvania town he so badly needs to win.

“I may be limping across the finish line, but we’re going to get across that finish line,” he said, promising six campaign events a day during the final week in the effort to get out his vote.

Such talk suggests he is not tanking his campaign deliberately. There are easier ways to lose an election.

Instead, it seems probable that his eleventh hour strategy of doubling down on hostility — whether towards women in general or Clinton in particular, the “rigged” American electoral system or the biased media — is part of a diabolical plan to turn us all off what happens next.

You see there is a body of thought among political scientists that the biggest impact of negative campaigns is to turn less committed voters off the election.

The calculation seems to be that with undecideds quite possibly lost to Trump, by taking the debate into the gutter it may be possible to disgust them so much they can’t face voting at all.

The turnout among millennials, in particular, is already a concern to Democrat strategists, so a low turnout may affect the Clinton vote more than the Trump vote.

So after a campaign in which the Republican candidate has mocked a disabled reporter, referred to the menstrual cycle of a questioner and demanded his rival be locked up, he is taking things to the next level.

His aim is not to burn down his opponent — who after 30 years of public life has seen her own unfavorability rating remain consistently high — but to burn down politics, delegitimize the election and make the whole shooting match seem utterly repugnant in order to depress turnout.

His scorched earth policy is designed to undermine American democracy and nab the White House.

It is a mighty strange way to Make America Great Again.

And if you are feeling queasy already, you might want to have some sick bags at the ready.

♦ Rob Crilly is a British journalist living in New York. He was The Telegraph’s Afghanistan and Pakistan correspondent and was previously the East Africa correspondent for The Times. The opinions in this article are those of the author. Some readers may find some of the language in this article offensive.

♦ Culled from the CNN

How Trump created new headaches for Republicans in final debate

He refused to say that he believes the results of the Nov. 8 presidential election will be legitimate

It was disturbing enough that Donald Trump has thrown loose talk around on the campaign trail that he feels the election is going to be rigged against him.

But Wednesday night, in front of a national primetime audience, Trump plunged himself and the Republican Party headfirst into a mess even larger than the one he’s created for the GOP over the past several months, when he refused to say that he believes the results of the Nov. 8 presidential election will be legitimate.

“I’ll look at it at the time,” was all that Trump would say, after being asked multiple times by Fox News’ Chris Wallace, the moderator of the third and final presidential debate.

Trump alleged that there are “millions of people that are registered to vote that shouldn’t be registered to vote” and claimed that this was information coming “from Pew Report and other places.”

He was referring to a report by the Pew Center on the states that have found that “more than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as voters.” But as FactCheck.org has noted, “the report did not allege the 1.8 million deceased people actually voted. Rather, Pew said that it is evidence of the need to upgrade voter registration systems.”

And there have been no examples of widespread, orchestrated voter fraud.

Wallace pressed Trump, noting that “there is a tradition in this country — in fact, one of the prides of this country — is the peaceful transition of power and that no matter how hard-fought a campaign is, that at the end of the campaign that the loser concedes to the winner.”

“Are you saying you’re not prepared now to commit to that principle?” Wallace asked Trump.

Donald Trump speaks as Hillary Clinton listens during their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Pool/Reuters) — Donald Trump speaks as Hillary Clinton listens during their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas on Oct. 19, 2016. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Pool/Reuters)

Trump responded: “What I’m saying is that I will tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense. OK?”

Even Trump’s running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and Trump’s own daughter, Ivanka, had said just hours earlier Wednesday that they would accept the election results. Trump could not bring himself to do so.

Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer, who wondered in a column last week why Trump’s complaints about the election being rigged had not drawn more attention, called the move “political suicide.” Weekly Standard founder Bill Kristol called on House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to disavow Trump over these comments.

“What should happen: Tomorrow morning @SpeakerRyan & @SenateMajLdr repudiate Trump, make case for GOP Congress to check & balance Clinton,” Kristol tweeted.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., did not wait for long Wednesday night to do just that. “Like most Americans, I have confidence in our democracy and election system,” Graham said in a statement. “Mr. Trump is doing the party and country a great disservice by continuing to suggest the outcome of this election is out of his hands and ‘rigged’ against him. If he loses, it will not be because the system is ‘rigged,’ but because he failed as a candidate.”

There will now be renewed pressure on Ryan to distance himself further from Trump than he did earlier this month, when he told House members he would not campaign with the GOP nominee after the release of a 2005 tape showing Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women.

It’s unlikely that this debate could have changed the trajectory of the race. But it was possible that Trump could have had a solid performance and failed to fuel new fires. And Clinton, for her part, might have chosen to play a fairly passive role in the debate coming into the night, with Trump plummeting in the polls and already written off for dead by many.

Instead, Clinton showed more poise, command and energy than she had in either of the first two debates. While some of her most effective moments came from lines of attack that were obviously rehearsed, she delivered her critiques of Trump with a style and confidence that had been lacking before.

Hillary Clinton answers a question during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (Photo:Joe Raedle/Pool via AP) — Hillary Clinton answers a question during the third presidential debate at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on Oct. 19, 2016. (Photo:Joe Raedle/Pool via AP)

Trump looked deflated and tired. He had a few moments where he pressed the case against Clinton over her use of a private email server and the shoddy work of contractors hired by her family’s foundation to do reconstruction work in Haiti, and he spoke clearly and forcefully on the issue of abortion.

But throughout most of the 90-minute debate — the most substantive and policy-oriented of the three, thanks to the moderator, Fox News’ Chris Wallace — it was Clinton who was on the offensive.

Clinton jumped on Trump early, knocking him for having “choked” in his meeting with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, when Trump failed to bring up his frequent promise that Mexico will pay to have a wall built along the U.S. border.

She hit Trump on his mysterious lack of outrage over the hacking of American government and political figures by what U.S. intelligence believes to be Russian hackers. “You encouraged espionage against our people,” she told Trump, referring to his comment in July that he hoped the Russian government would “find the 30,000 emails” that Clinton deleted from a private server she had installed at her home while she was secretary of state.

Clinton, who often struggles to connect with audiences, also showed genuine emotion at several points: when she compared her 30 years in public life to Trump’s, when she ran through his comments about women who have accused him of unwanted sexual advances and assault and when she responded to his refusal to accept the legitimacy of the U.S. election system.

Clinton noted that in the 1970s, she had been working at the Children’s Defense Fund, “taking on discrimination against African-American kids in schools. He was getting sued by the Justice Department for racial discrimination in his apartment buildings.” She ran through other examples and concluded by noting that “On the day when I was in the situation room monitoring the raid that brought Osama bin Laden to justice, [Trump] was hosting the ‘Celebrity Apprentice.’”

Trump replied simply: “I think I did a much better job. I built a massive company… worth many, many billions of dollars.”

When Wallace asked Trump why nine separate women would have made up stories about Trump touching them inappropriately, Trump simply said the stories were “debunked” and switched to talking about videos released this week by the conservative activist James O’Keefe, in which a Democratic operative named Scott Foval brags about having paid homeless people to disrupt Trump rallies.

Trump blamed violence at one particular rally in Chicago earlier this year on Clinton herself, despite the fact that there is no evidence that Foval ever interacted with the Clinton campaign, or that he even had any involvement with the Chicago rally unrest.

“She’s the one, and Obama, that caused the violence,” Trump said.

Clinton did not address the O’Keefe tapes, which have resulted in Foval being fired from the group Americans United for Change, and instead focused on Trump’s response over the past week or so to the women who have accused him of assaulting them.

Donald Trump listens to Hillary Clinton during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (Photo: Patrick Semansky/AP) — Donald Trump listens to Hillary Clinton during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas on Oct. 19, 2016. (Photo: Patrick Semansky/AP)

“He held a number of big rallies where he said that he could not possibly have done those things to those women because they were not attractive enough for them to be assaulted,” Clinton said.

Trump interjected: “I did not say that. I did not say that.”

Clinton continued: “He went on to say, ‘Look at her. I don’t think so.’ About another woman, he said, ‘That wouldn’t be my first choice,’” she said. “Donald thinks belittling women makes him bigger. He goes after their dignity, their self-worth, and I don’t think there is a woman anywhere who doesn’t know what that feels like.

“That’s who Donald is. I think it’s really up to all of us to demonstrate who we are and who our country is, and to stand up and be very clear about what we expect from our next president,” she said.

Trump’s response? “Nobody has more respect for women than I do. Nobody,” he said. Wallace had to hush the audience’s laughter.

Near the end of the debate, Trump, who is running behind by huge numbers with women of all ages and incomes, raised eyebrows when he interjected, after Clinton took a quick jab at him while she was talking about Social Security, that she was “such a nasty woman.”

And when Trump said he would not promise to accept the outcome of the election, he again attacked Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server, which he said was a “very, very serious crime.” Clinton noted that the Justice Department had found no reason to prosecute her — a decision some think was not well-founded — and focused on Trump’s remarks.

Clinton called Trump’s refusal to accept the American electoral system “horrifying.”

“We’ve been around for 240 years. We’ve had free and fair elections. We’ve accepted the outcomes when we may not have liked them. And that is what must be expected of anyone standing on a debate stage during a general election,” Clinton said.

Her voice rose a level as she said to Trump, “It just shows you’re not up to doing the job.”

“He is denigrating, he’s talking down our democracy. And I, for one, am appalled that somebody who is the nominee of one of our two major parties would take that kind of position,” Clinton said.

Barring some unforeseen chain of events, Clinton is on track to win the presidency, possibly in overwhelming fashion. On Wednesday night in Las Vegas, Trump surprised no one and made it painfully obvious that he is happy to take the party down with him. Clinton did something unexpected, demonstrating that she would not — at least for this one night — just bide her time and hope Trump can’t catch her.

Presidential Debate: What You Missed

By ALEXANDER BURNS and MATT FLEGENHEIMER (NYT)

Donald J. Trump refused to say on Wednesday night that he would accept the results of the presidential election, rejecting American political norms and growing pressure from his own party by claiming that the political process is extensively rigged against him.

Mr. Trump said he would decide only on Nov. 8 whether to respect the election returns. He accused the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the media of conspiring in Mrs. Clinton’s favor, and brushed off a reminder from Chris Wallace, the debate moderator, that the peaceful transfer of power is “one of the prides of this country.”

Hillary Clinton called Mr. Trump’s answer “horrifying,” and accused him of “talking down our democracy” out of frustration with his flagging campaign.

The exchange was the closest thing to a climactic moment in which Mrs. Clinton aggressively branded Mr. Trump as a dangerous candidate, calling him a “puppet” of Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and urging voters not to entrust him with nuclear weapons.

Mr. Trump’s broad criticism of the democratic system overshadowed his own insistent efforts to put Mrs. Clinton on the defensive over her record at the State Department and her status as a political insider. And he did little to address the multiplying accusations of sexual harassment and assault against him, asserting falsely that those charges had largely been discredited

Here are the rest of the highlights:

Asked if he would accept the results of the election, Mr. Trump — who has repeatedly predicted a “rigged” system could doom him — refused to commit. “I will look at it at the time,” he said, before suggesting without evidence that wide-scale voter fraud and a media conspiracy could affect the outcome. Mrs. Clinton called these remarks “horrifying.” She noted that Mr. Trump had a long history of claiming that forces were aligned against him, recalling his complaint when he did not receive an Emmy award for his television show, among other gripes. “Should have gotten it,” Mr. Trump said.
The moderator cited estimates that both candidates’ plans would increase the national debt. Mr. Trump rejected that analysis, saying he could “create tremendous jobs” and construct “an economic machine” to power growth. Mrs. Clinton likewise said she would “not add a penny to the national debt.” Asked next about entitlement spending, Mr. Trump switched to a discussion of the Affordable Care Act, which he said he wanted to repeal. When Mrs. Clinton tweaked her opponent for evading taxes, Mr. Trump interjected: “Such a nasty woman,” he said.
Mrs. Clinton, speaking about her support for some gun control measures, said she saw “no conflict between saving people’s lives and defending the Second Amendment.” She added that the National Rifle Association was running “millions of dollars of ads against me.” Mr. Trump said he was unsure if Mrs. Clinton had referenced the group’s support for him “in a sarcastic manner,” but that he was “very proud” of it.
Asked about the role of the Supreme Court, Mrs. Clinton said she expected the court to “represent all of us,” citing the importance of marriage equality and abortion rights. She added that she hoped that “the Senate would do its job and confirm the nominee that President Obama has sent to them.” Mr. Trump, answering the same question, said, “The Supreme Court, that’s what it’s all about,” before suggesting Mrs. Clinton would hope to steer the court away from adherence to the Second Amendment.
Mrs. Clinton focused attention on Mr. Trump’s past comments that, if abortion were outlawed, there should be “some form of punishment” for the women involved. After Mrs. Clinton was pressed on her support for late-term abortions under certain circumstances — she cited the health of prospective mothers — Mr. Trump said he thought it was “terrible.” “If you go with what Hillary is saying, in the ninth month you can take the baby and rip the baby out of the womb of the mother,” he said.
Mr. Trump held forth on his signature issue — immigration — suggesting that the heroin crisis in some pockets of the country owed to insufficient border security. “We have to have strong borders,” he said, adding, “We have some bad hombres.” Mrs. Clinton said that while her immigration plan “of course includes border security,” she did not want to see “the deportation force that Donald has talked about.”
Mrs. Clinton suggested Mr. Trump was a hypocrite on the issue of immigration, saying he had “used undocumented labor to build the Trump Tower.” When the moderator, Chris Wallace, quoted from a paid Clinton speech — citing an excerpt revealed by WikiLeaks in which she said she dreamed of “open trade and open borders” — Mrs. Clinton said she was “talking about energy.”
Mrs. Clinton said a more pressing issue from the leaked documents was the specter of the Russian government engaging in “espionage against Americans,” suggesting that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has a “clear favorite in this race.” “That was a great pivot off the fact that she wants open borders,” Mr. Trump said, adding, “I don’t know Putin.” Mrs. Clinton said Mr. Putin would prefer “a puppet as president of the United States.” Mr. Trump shot back, “You’re the puppet.”
After Mr. Trump said Mr. Putin had “outsmarted and outplayed” Mrs. Clinton on the international stage, Mrs. Clinton moved to cast Mr. Trump as too unstable to be president, saying he had been distressingly cavalier about the use of nuclear weapons. “Wrong,” Mr. Trump interjected, reprising an interruption from the first debate.
As the discussion turned to the economy, Mrs. Clinton said Mr. Trump’s plans amounted to “trickle-down economics on steroids.” Mr. Trump, after taking credit for more active participation from international trade partners — “all the sudden they’re paying,” he said — suggested he would produce national prosperity by renegotiating trade deals.
After Mrs. Clinton said President Obama did not get the credit he deserved for improving economic conditions since taking office, she allowed that Americans were “standing, but we’re not yet running.” Mr. Trump, placing blame for many Americans’ financial struggles on trade policy under Bill Clinton, said the country was “stagnant.” Mrs. Clinton accused Mr. Trump of crying “crocodile tears” about the American work force despite using Chinese steel on construction projects.
Addressing the many accusations of sexual assault against him, Mr. Trump said, “I don’t know those people,” calling the accounts “totally false.” “I didn’t even apologize to my wife, who’s sitting right here, because I didn’t do anything,” he said, accusing Mrs. Clinton of stoking the claims. Mrs. Clinton seized on Mr. Trump’s recent insinuations that he could not have assaulted some of the women because they were not attractive enough. “Donald thinks belittling women makes him bigger,” she said. “I don’t think there’s a woman anywhere who doesn’t know what that feels like.”
When Mr. Trump sought to pivot to a discussion of Mrs. Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state, Mrs. Clinton accused him of dodging responsibility for his own actions. “He never apologizes or says he’s sorry for anything,” she said, noting his insults of a Gold Star family, a reporter with a physical disability and a judge with Mexican heritage, among others. “It’s not one thing, this is a pattern,” she said.
Mr. Trump accused Mrs. Clinton of misdeeds at the Clinton Foundation, asking her to return donations from countries with a record of human rights abuses. Mrs. Clinton said she would be “happy to compare what we do with the Trump Foundation,” recalling the use of Trump Foundation funds to purchase a large portrait of its namesake. “Who does that?” she asked. When Mr. Trump said the foundation’s money was dedicated to charitable giving, Mrs. Clinton noted that his claims were impossible to verify because he had not released his tax returns.
After Mr. Trump accused Mrs. Clinton of helping to destabilize the Middle East, citing her vote for the Iraq war, among other decisions, Mrs. Clinton reminded voters that Mr. Trump had expressed support for the invasion. “Google, ‘Donald Trump Iraq,’” she said. Mr. Trump repeatedly cut in to say, “Wrong.”
The candidates sparred over refugee policy, with Mr. Trump predicting security crises if Mrs. Clinton were elected. “This is going to be the great Trojan horse,” Mr. Trump said, discussing Syrian refugees. “Lots of luck, Hillary.” Mrs. Clinton said she would not allow anyone into the country without appropriate vetting but added, “I am not going to slam the door on women and children.”
Offered a chance to give closing remarks, the candidates hewed closely to their campaign trail messages. Mrs. Clinton spoke about improving the lives of families, saying she hoped Americans would “give me a chance to serve as your president.” Mr. Trump began, “She’s raising the money from the people she wants to control. Doesn’t work that way.” He said he would “make America great,” touching on what he called a “depleted military” and urban conditions where “you get shot walking to the store.”

Buffett Just Released His Own Tax Data to Hammer Trump

Warren Buffett just fact checkedDonald Trump.

In a debate Sunday, Trump acknowledged using a nine-figure loss in 1995 to reduce tax obligations and sought to liken the move to strategies used by some of Democratic presidential nomineeHillary Clinton’s wealthy supporters, including Buffett. On Monday, the billionaireBerkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman released information from his personal taxes and challenged the Republican presidential candidate to do the same.

“He has not seen my income tax returns. But I am happy to give him the facts,” Buffett said in astatement. “I have paid federal income tax every year since 1944, when I was 13.”

Buffett has been clashing for months with Trump, who has refused to release his tax returns, citing an audit. At a campaign event for Clinton in Omaha, Nebraska, in August, the Berkshire chairman challenged the Republican candidate to meet him “any place, any time” to swap returns and answer questions from the public.

That never came to pass. On Monday, Buffett said he paid $1.85 million in federal income taxes in 2015 on adjusted gross income of $11.6 million. That would mean he paid an effective federal income tax rate of about 16 percent. In 2013, the most recent year for which data are available, the top 1 percent of earners paid 27 percent, according to an analysis of Internal Revenue Service data by the Tax Foundation.

Charitable Donations

Most of Buffett’s$65 billion fortune comes from his controlling interest in Berkshire. The company doesn’t pay a dividend and, for decades, Buffett has asked the board to keep his annual salary at $100,000. The 86-year-old is

He said Monday that he made more than $2.8 billion of donations last year. Yet his tax return shows only $5.5 million in deductions, mostly for allowable charitable contributions and state income taxes. The law “properly” limits what can be deducted, Buffett wrote.

He again dismissed the contention that Trump can’t release his own return because of an audit by the Internal Revenue Service.

‘No Problem’

“I have been audited by the IRS multiple times and am currently being audited,” Buffett wrote. “I have no problem in releasing my tax information while under audit. Neither would Mr. Trump — at least he would have no legal problem.

Jessica Ditto, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, declined to comment on Buffett’s remarks.

Trump, who has departed from roughly 40 years of tradition for presidential nominees by declining to release his returns or anytax information, has said he’ll make them public once the audit is complete and that returns wouldn’t give voters very much information.

Tax Strategies

Releasing full tax returns and schedules would disclose Trump’s income sources, charitable contributions and possible glimpses of his tax-minimizing strategies. Income reported from assets could provide at least some partial clues about the nature of those holdings, though not about their value or inner workings. His returns would also reveal any foreign income or foreignbank accounts.

Even if he didn’t release full returns, Trump could give voters at least some information — that is, how much he made and how much he paid — by releasing the sort of figures Buffett did, particularly if Trump provided several years’ worth of data.

During Sunday’s debate, Trump acknowledged for the first time that he had used a business loss of $916 million to avoid federal income income taxes — though he didn’t say for how long, and he said such tax avoidance is common practice among wealthy businessmen.

Under rules in place at the time, Trump could have used the loss to avoid taxes on as much as $50 million in income a year — for three years prior to the loss and 15 years after. Using old losses to reduce taxes on income in future years is known as a carryforward.

Buffett’s 72 Returns

“I have copies of all 72 of my returns,” Buffett wrote Monday. “And none uses a carryforward.”

While Berkshire has been a sophisticated user of the tax code to limit its liabilities, Buffett has been outspoken for years about how the wealthiest people in the U.S. don’t pay enough income tax. To illustrate the point, he has said his secretary pays a higher rate than he does.

The billionaire was the inspiration of the so-called Buffett Rule, proposed by PresidentBarack Obama and backed by Clinton, which would tax incomes exceeding $1 million at a minimum rate of 30 percent. The Democratic candidate reiterated her support for that plan Sunday.

Solid Democratic

Leaning Democratic

Toss-ups

Leaning Republican

Solid Republican

Ratings Changes

Hillary Clinton didn’t beat Donald Trump in the final debate. Donald Trump destroyed Donald Trump.

He refused to say that he believes the results of the Nov. 8 presidential election will be legitimate

Warren Buffett just fact checkedDonald Trump.

Charitable Donations

‘No Problem’

Tax Strategies

Buffett’s 72 Returns

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