South Sudan’s president replaces his rival Machar as deputy

JUBA (Reuters) – South Sudan President Salva Kiir replaced his vice president and rival Riek Machar on Monday, a move that could potentially undermine last year’s peace deal and reignite war in Africa’s youngest nation.

Machar was sworn in as first vice president only last April, eight months after a peace agreement that ended two years of fighting that broke out the last time that Kiir sacked him as his deputy in 2013.

But the rivalry between the two men led to violence in the capital Juba early this month as forces from both sides battled each other with tanks, helicopters and other heavy weapons.

Machar, from the minority Nuer ethnic group, left Juba with his troops, saying he would only return when an international body had to set up a buffer force between his fighters and those supporting Kiir, leader of the dominant Dinka group.

Kiir issued an ultimatum last week, saying Machar had 48 hours to contact him and return to Juba to salvage last year’s peace deal, or face replacement.

He made good on that threat on Monday when he issued a decree “for the appointment of the first vice president of the republic of South Sudan”, naming General Tabal Deng Gai to the post.

A former minister of mining, Deng Gai was a chief negotiator on behalf of Machar’s SPLM-IO group in the talks that led to last year’s deal. But last week, he broke ranks with Machar and backed Kiir’s ultimatum to him.

Riek Machar walks alongside President Salva Kiir on the red carpet recently.
Riek Machar walks alongside President Salva Kiir on the red carpet recently.

South Sudan’s politics has long been plagued by splits and rivalries as leaders switch allegiances in a struggle for power an influence in the oil-producing nation, which only emerged from Sudan five years ago.

Its last war, which started after Kiir sacked Machar as vice president in 2013, killed more than 10,000 people and displaced over 2 million, many of whom fled to neighbouring countries.

The most recent fighting in Juba has forced 26,000 people to flee to neighbouring Uganda, according to the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR.

In a bid to prevent a return to full-scale war in the crude oil producer, the African Union and the Inter Governmental Authority of Development, an east African bloc, have backed the deployment of a regional force and also want the UN force UNMISS’s mandate changed to that of an intervention force.

South Sudan takes tentative step forward as former rebel leader becomes VP

South Sudan's new Vice President Riek Machar, center-left, walked with President Salva Kiir, center-right, after being sworn in at the presidential palace in Juba.
South Sudan’s new Vice President Riek Machar, center-left, walked with President Salva Kiir, center-right, after being sworn in at the presidential palace in Juba.

Juba, South Sudan — Peace doves that had remained in their cages for more than a week were released Tuesday, as South Sudanese rebel leader Riek Machar set foot in Juba for the first time in more than two years. Mr. Machar was then whisked to meet President Salva Kiir – until recently his opponent in the country’s bitter civil war – and was inaugurated as first vice president.

Machar’s return is crucial for ending the conflict, which has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced 2.3 million since it began in 2013, just two and a half years after South Sudan gained independence in 2011. He had been expected in Juba last Monday, but disputes over the number of troops he was traveling with and the types of weapons they were allowed to carry delayed his arrival.

The eight-day wait tested the patience of many, and is a fraught beginning to this new chapter in South Sudan’s history.

For South Sudanese, the daily delays were a stressful teaser. Some doubted Machar would return at all. For the international community, they represented the intransigence of both sides, calling into question the millions of dollars and years of diplomacy spent trying to achieve peace.

“What is surprising for me is not that the implementation of the peace process has stalled, but that anyone is surprised that it has stalled. There is very little good faith on the two sides and certainly very little trust in each other” said J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, in an interview on the organization’s website.

Five years ago, the international community was eager to assist the newly independent South Sudan. But today, diplomats have become fed up with both sides.

South Sudan is experiencing a crippling economic crisis, and one of the first tasks of the unity government will be negotiating a financial rescue package from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Diplomats talk of a “new normal” in relationships to the government, where donors scale back financial assistance and offer aid only with conditions, such as increasing funding to health and education services.

Some say that the current peace deal doesn’t address the drivers of the conflict.

“Forming a government with the same actors responsible for the collapse of the economy and atrocities holds open the possibility that grand corruption will return to its pre-war patterns,” says John Prendergast, founding director of the Enough Project.

Indeed, the task for Kiir and Machar will be to manage not only their fraught relationship, but the extremists in each of their camps who have an interest in stopping the  deal. Yet on Tuesday, those partisans did not make an appearance.

Instead, President Kiir apologized to the people of South Sudan and the international community.

“We acknowledge there are unresolved indues related to the [peace] agreement, but I promise we will resolve those issues amicably,” Kiir said, looking out from under his signature cowboy hat.

The cowboy hat has become a staple of Kiir’s wardrobe, after he first received it as a gift from President George W. Bush. In 2005, Mr. Bush was instrumental in securing the independence of South Sudan.

Perhaps a signal that the support of the international community is more important than individual grudges, Machar made a notable fashion choice as he arrived in Juba.

Like Kiir, he sported what appeared to be an American cowboy hat — perhaps an ode to the international support that South Sudan needs now more than ever.

South Sudan rebel chief’s return delayed

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Juba (AFP) – South Sudan rebel leader Riek Machar’s highly-anticipated return to the capital Juba, to take up the role of vice president, was delayed on Monday, his spokesman said, citing “logistical reasons”.

“We are committed to the peace agreement, but there have been logistical issues and the first vice president, Riek Machar, will come tomorrow,” spokesman William Ezekiel said.

Machar’s return to Juba and swearing-in as President Salva Kiir’s deputy will mark an important step in a floundering August 2015 deal to end the country’s civil war.

The agreement is seen as the best hope yet for ending more than two years of fighting that have left the world’s youngest nation in chaos and pushed it to the brink of famine.

Machar previously served as Kiir’s deputy until he was fired just months before the start of war in December 2013.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in a conflict marked by numerous atrocities, with more than two million forced from their homes and nearly six million in need of emergency food aid.

The war broke out in December 2013 when Kiir accused Machar of planning a coup, claims he denied, triggering a cycle of retaliatory killings that divided the desperately poor country along ethnic lines.

The rebel leader was expected to arrive in Juba Monday from his tribal stronghold of Pagak in the east of the country, but despite the latest hitch spokesman Ezekiel said the rebels remain committed to peace.

“We are here to implement all the peace agreement. We have been missing deadlines but we will fulfil in the end,” he said.

– Red carpet no-show –

The red carpet had been rolled out at Juba’s airport on Monday morning, the sentries lined up and the dignitaries were assembling when Machar’s no-show was announced, disappointing many for whom his arrival marks a major tangible step towards peace.

Overnight, posters welcoming Machar, some reading “Reconciling, uniting the nation,” had been torn down, said Ezekiel.

Machar’s arrival will be a milestone in the peace process but experts warn that implementing the deal will be a long and arduous task.

“It will allow the formation of the transitional government, the most significant step in the implementation of the peace agreement,” said Casie Copeland from the International Crisis Group think tank, while warning warned that the conflict would likely continue.

Several militias, driven by local agendas or revenge, do not obey either Machar’s or Kiir’s commands.

Tensions are high ahead of Machar’s return. A 1,370-strong armed rebel force arrived in Juba this month as part of the peace deal, while the government says all but 3,420 of its troops have withdrawn from the city.

The opposing forces are based in camps scattered in and around the capital, while other forces are not allowed within a 25 kilometre (15 mile) radius of Juba.

The army has denied opposition claims that it has secretly returned truckloads of its troops to the capital.

The UN has 11,000 peacekeeping troops in South Sudan, many of them guarding the 185,000 civilians who have spent the past 28 months inside UN bases, too afraid to leave in case they are attacked.

Both the government and rebel forces have been accused of perpetrating ethnic massacres, recruiting and killing children and carrying out widespread rape, torture and forced displacement of populations to “cleanse” areas of their opponents.

– ‘Armed to the teeth’ –

“Both sides are armed to the teeth… should fighting break out this time in Juba, we should expect prolonged battles in the city,” Jacob Akol, a veteran South Sudanese journalist Jacob Akol, wrote in an editorial for the Gurtong peace project.

Machar — who last year said it was not possible to have peace while Kiir remained in power — is now due to arrive Tuesday and is expected to be swiftly sworn in at the presidential palace.

African Union representative Alpha Oumar Konare, a former president of Mali, and Festus Mogae, a former Botswanan president who heads the international ceasefire monitoring team, are expected at the ceremony.

Mogae, who is typically upbeat about developments in the fractured nation, has already warned that the “formation of a new government will not in itself be a panacea”.

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